http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=express&s=judis090304. You may need to register but it may be worth it as it made me feel much better about any Bush bounce.
Read an excerpt below the fold:
Remeber that Carter is Bush and Reagan is Kerry in this scenario:
From June to September, measured by Gallup's polls of registered voters, the pattern in the race between Carter and Reagan is very similar to that between Bush and John Kerry. In mid-June 1980, Reagan pulled ahead of Carter in the polls by three points. He retained that lead until after the Republican Convention when he moved ahead by 16 points. But by August 15, on the eve of the Democratic Convention, Carter had wiped out Reagan's lead and was ahead by six points. In Gallup's polls from then until the last two weeks of the election, Carter would remain ahead, losing out to Reagan only after the climactic October 28 debate between the two men, when Reagan was able finally to establish his credibility as a future president. Once Reagan did that--Carter had refused to debate him until the very end--the electorate turned dramatically away from Carter, and Reagan won by a landslide.